Bison Forum

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Oil reserves are currently a fraction over 300 million barrels, about the same as 1982. In 1982 the typical price was around $26/barrel. Oil supply rose steadily to a 2008 peak just under 800 million. Since then it has fallen to today’s levels.

To convert the 1982 dollar to 2026 dollars multiply by 3.5. Maybe not exact but good.

In today’s dollars the 1982 barrel is ($26 x 3.5 = $91.00). Currently oil is just under $90.

With falling supply prices should rise. Unfortunately demand is falling too, at rates not seen since 1982:

The rich countries’ energy think-tank has again cut sharply its prediction for world oil demand this year, and now expects it to average 84.7m barrels per day, down 1m b/d from last year, because of the steep downturn in the world economy.

This year is expected to mark two successive years of falling demand for the first time since 1982-83.

The falling demand arises from slowing economic activity. An oil shortage may not develop. Prices may be near the top of the range now.